Ben Quinn
Nigel Farage’s stint as a contestant in I’m a Celebrity … Get Me Out of Here! has presented the former Ukip leader turned GB News host with a near-perfect platform for a return to frontline politics – but will it be as the head of Reform UK, the insurgent populist party he founded, or as a member once again of the Conservative party?
Farage did not rule out a return to the Conservatives in “never say never” comments to a fellow contestant in the Australian bush in an episode of the show, which ends on Sunday.
Reform UK certainly expects its founder, who is not officially leader but holds the majority of shares in what is technically a company, to be at the forefront of its campaign, if not a candidate, for an election it is believed could be just months away.
“I think the chances of him standing for election is pretty much nil. Apart from anything else, when he was standing for Ukip back in the day it ended up with him being locked up in South Thanet [where Farage stood] whereas this time he can roam around the country,” said one long-term confidante.
“But the fact is, he is going to come out of the jungle and will be rubbing his hands when he is told suddenly that David Cameron is foreign secretary. My feeling is that he won’t do anything about it until the new year, after he listens to a few people he trusts and considers his options.”
Ann Widdecombe, the former Conservative minister who later became a Brexit party MEP and is now with Reform UK, likened Farage’s introduction to a whole new audience on the ITV show to the way in which the Brexit referendum had been an opportunity to engage people.
“If, through being on I’m a Celebrity, Nigel reaches people who don’t normally vote, then that is a strength. It’s not going to make a big difference but it’s important,” said Widdecombe, who pointed to recent polls showing Reform was already polling at about 11%. “That’s actually quite something, but what we will see in the coming months is Farage becoming more active. I don’t think he needs to be leader, nor am I convinced that he wants to be leader.”
Polling shared with the Guardian by More in Common illustrates the potential political rewards of being exposed to the I’m a Celebrity audience. The voters most likely to watch I’m a Celebrity were from a segment of people it categorised as “loyal nationals” – the best match for voters in “red wall” constituencies.
Twenty eight per cent of voters from that group had watched the show in the past year, according to the company, although 25% of traditionally “soft left” voters and 24% of voters from traditional “Shire Tory” backgrounds had also done so.
Luke Tryl, More in Common’s UK director, said he did not believe being on the show had a big impact on voting intentions. But he added: “He has little to lose and even last year, when Matt Hancock appeared on it, we had some people in focus groups saying, ‘Oh, I feel a bit sorry for him. Now I understand him a bit more.’ So it can can build a sort of empathy and relatability.”
Of course, rather than diving back into politics, Farage may choose to continue focusing on his media career at GB News, which has been actively encouraging viewers to vote for him to win I’m a Celebrity. An encounter on the BBC’s Today programme earlier this year, in which he snapped when Nick Robinson reminded him of his failures to be elected as an MP, has been cited by some Farage watchers who believe he would be reluctant to risk being a loser once again.
But the once-unthinkable scenario of Farage rejoining the Tories has also become the subject of increasing speculation since he was feted by Tory members at their conference this year and which was fuelled when Rishi Sunak suggested last week he could be welcomed back inside the party.
A poll of Tory members last month also found that more than 70%would happily have Farage back in their party. Liam Deacon, a communications adviser who has worked for the Brexit party and the Tories in the past, said: “A lot of Tories are really worried that he’s coming across as very decent figure, but a lot also do like him, including people in the parliamentary party.
“In that context, Rishi’s comments were really interesting. David Cameron thought the referendum would kill off UK, but it didn’t. Even after Brexit Ukip’s effective successors are still at 10% in the polls and damaging the Conservatives. So I think some Tories are realising they need a more permanent rapprochement with their rivals on the right.
“Whether that involves Nigel being brought in I honestly don’t know. It’s also difficult. After all, he’s used to being the leader.”
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