The 27 Club is real, even if it’s not true that celebrities are more likely to die at that age

Celebrities, particularly musicians, do not have a statistically significant tendency to die at the age of 27. This assertion is backed by indisputable evidence, yet the deaths of Brian Jones, Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, and Jim Morrison within a two-year span in the 1970s at that age gave rise to the myth of a so-called “27 Club.” This notion was reignited with the death of Amy Winehouse in 2011.

A new study published in PNAS challenges the empirical basis of this popular belief. While an earlier study from 13 years ago published in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) also addressed the topic, the latest research further clarifies that the 27 Club is a popular belief without any empirical basis — as evidenced by icons such as Mick Jagger (81) and Paul McCartney (82). The study, however, concludes: “While age 27 does not hold greater risk of mortality for notable persons, those who died at 27 are as a group exceptionally notable compared to those who died at other young ages.”

The lead author of the new research, Zackary Okun Dunivin — an expert in computer science and cultural sociology at Indiana University — analyzed extensive data to arrive at this conclusion. He argues that while the 27 Club exists as a cultural phenomenon, it is not the result of a curse. Instead, it reflects “a reality,” a social construction arising from “an effectively random event” marked by the deaths of four legendary musicians at the same age — an occurrence deemed “statistically improbable.” According to Dunivin, the celebrity deaths at this fateful age have created “narrative that shapes otherwise unrelated events and thus the way we make and interpret history.”

The researcher explains that the social belief in the 27 Club is fueled by details that go beyond the mere number 27. “The mystique of these deaths was strengthened by further uncanny parallels including participation in the counter-cultural music scene and festival circuit, the drug-related nature of the deaths, and the occurrence of the fourth and final death [Morrison] on the second anniversary of the first [Jones], as well as the apocryphal white lighter found on each musician.”

The myth of the 27 Club expanded with the deaths of influential figures like Jean-Michel Basquiat, Kurt Cobain, and Amy Winehouse. The legend even reaches back to earlier artists, such as Robert Johnson. In total, the so-called club encompasses around a hundred celebrities who died at 27.

Statistician Martin Wolkewitz previously examined this ominous club in a study published in the BMJ, concluding that there is clearly “no peak in risk [for famous musicians] around age 27.” He did acknowledge, however, that there is “some evidence” of an increase in deaths among musicians aged 20 to 40 during the 1970s and early 1980s. But in the late 1980s, despite the presence of a substantial number of artists, he found that “there were no deaths in this age group.” Wolkewitz attributed this decline to improvements in drug addiction treatment and shifts in the music industry, citing the transition “from the hard rock 1970s to the pop dominated 1980s.”

Dunivin invokes the Thomas Theorem, formulated by sociologist William I. Thomas, to bolster his argument: “If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences.” The study claims: “Given the persistent legend of the 27 Club, we propose that the club is reified (made real) as a cultural phenomenon and measurable in its consequences even as empirical death rates do not support it.” This cultural framing explains why celebrities who die at the age of 27 garner more attention.

Dunivin’s study does not aim to provide statistical evidence for the existence of the 27 Club, but rather to show “how a myth, a belief, or narrative with limited basis in fact, can form over a relatively short period and have real cultural consequences.”

“It’s obvious that 27-year-olds are no more likely to die than 26- or 28-year-olds. What motivated me about this story is that the myth is real,” Dunivin explains. “Because we highlight those who die at 27, it really does seem like more people are dying at that age. Because this story is so well-known, a global myth, it seemed meaningful to me to write about this strange effect and explore some concepts of complexity in the context of cultural change. The idea to write the article came to me out of the blue, after watching a film about Jean-Michel Basquiat.”

In this way, Dunivin analyzes the existence of the 27 Club as a cultural phenomenon shaped by improbable and unpredictable events. “The original four deaths were a fluke, yet it is unsurprising that such a remarkable event with high public visibility would inspire a myth,” the study argues.

The research also posits that a mechanism of contagion leads to the growing membership of the 27 Club, a phenomenon that does not extend to other age groups. This mechanism facilitates the spread of specific cultural knowledge, ultimately transforming the club into a “real phenomenon.”

The study examined data from 344,156 famous people across various fields, including culture, sports, and society, who died between 1900 and 2015. After analyzing this extensive dataset, the researchers concluded that “social forces and their interplay are more widely applicable in the development of not only folklore, but cultural patterns more generally.”

“I think the key element of a myth is poetry, not verisimilitude. The stories we tell are the ones that feel mysterious, transcendental or beautiful. They are fun stories to tell and speculate about. We often pass on myths that we know are not true, just because the story is compelling,” says Dunivin.

Other baseless myths

The creation of baseless myths extends across various domains. For instance, popular belief holds that the Roman siege of the Masada fort, the site of the so-called Great Jewish Revolt in the first century AD, lasted for three years. According to this narrative, the siege culminated when the rebels, facing imminent defeat, chose to take their own lives rather than be captured and enslaved. However, a recent study has significantly shortened the duration of the siege to just a few weeks.

“We were able to objectively calculate how long it took them to build the entire siege system — eight camps and a stone wall surrounding most of the site. We found that construction took merely about two weeks,” says Hai Ashkenazi, head of Geoinformatics at the Israel Antiquities Authority. “Based on the ancient historical testimony, it is clear that once the assault ramp was completed, the Romans launched a brutal attack, ultimately capturing the fortress within a few weeks at the most. This leads us to the conclusion that the entire siege of Masada lasted no more than several weeks.”

Another cultural myth suggests that the Easter Islanders felled all their trees to construct the famous moai statues, leading to an ecological disaster that drastically reduced the population. However, recent research questions whether the island was ever densely populated in the first place

“What we’re actually seeing here is that the island couldn’t sustain that many people to begin with based on ecological constraints,” says Dylan S. Davis, co-author of the research. “People actually modified their landscapes to increase the amount of what they could intensively cultivate and that number was still very small. This isn’t an example of ecological catastrophe but of how people survived despite really limited natural resources in a fairly sustainable way for a long time.”

Widespread misconceptions can also emerge in the health field, often with serious consequences. One prevalent myth is that “only white, wealthy, thin girls develop eating disorders.” According to the authors of Eating Disorders: The Basics, this stereotype limits the treatment and diagnosis of patients who do not conform to this stereotype.

The media also plays a significant role in perpetuating myths. For over two decades, the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania has tracked how news reports inaccurately link the holiday season and New Year’s Eve to increased suicide rates. Contrary to this narrative, one study found that the winter holiday months generally exhibit lower average daily suicide rates, with December recording the lowest rates of all. “Whether it’s the media that is influencing popular opinion, or mistaken beliefs by the public that appear in news stories, it’s unfortunate to see there are still persistent misimpressions about the holidays and suicide,” says Dan Romer, the center’s research director.

Similarly, an analysis of data from dozens of foraging societies around the world reveals that women participate in hunting in at least 79% of these cultures, challenging the widely held belief that hunting is solely a man’s job and that women only gather. This finding comes from a study led by Abigail Anderson of Seattle Pacific University and published in PLOS ONE.

The list of misconceptions is extensive, but in every case, the hypothesis of the 27 Club is clear: once an idea becomes ingrained in the collective imagination, it generates a myth — regardless of the objective validity of the data or the coincidental nature of the events that form a singular narrative. These myths create a reality that has real consequences.

“Usually,” Dunivin explains, “there is an interplay between arbitrariness, function and historical assimilation of cultural objects. And it can be very difficult to unravel them.”

Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition